The always-sharp Middle East analysis at DEBKAfile shows that a war of attrition is brewing and in fact some signs point to a war already beginning to break out. The analysts as well as Saudi Arabia’s leadership predict Iran will progressively constrict the Strait of Hormuz rather than shut it down in one swoop. This waterway is where one-fifth of the world’s oil comes from, and Saudi Arabia is closely watching the situation, mulling what kind of action from Iran would constitute an act of war.
Meanwhile, the U.S. military is constructing a floating commando base in the Middle East which will serve as a launchpad of attack should the Strait of Hormuz situation go south. They’re also working on a bunker buster that can destroy Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities after admitting their current $300M+ arsenal isn’t good enough to do the job. This all comes after the Pentagon’s recent revealing of its austerity program, which exposes America’s strategic military objective to use these commandos in response to asynchronous threats in the region. In fact, one could argue that the black ops attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities and scientists could be construed as the start of this conflict, in which case war is already underway.
The emerging picture is not one of a land war similar to the last several Gulf wars, but rather one of precision drone strikes, daring commando raids and high-tech defense gadgetry. This new face of war is no more attractive than the old. Because of Western sanctions currently imposed on Iran, the average Iranian citizen is suffering from rapid inflation and isolation. We may see a similar situation in Iran as the sanctions against Iraq which claimed the lives of millions of innocent Iraqi citizens. It goes to show that any war, be it high-tech, in the trenches, or even fought through “diplomacy” — is hell.
The war drums can be heard loud and strong in Iran, and its citizens are already mentally preparing for an inevitable attack. They have every reason to be concerned, given that their country’s crossing of a new nuclear weapons development milestone has not gone unnoticed by Western military powers.
The most recent war buzz centers around the recent deployment of thousands of U.S. troops to Israel. Army officials have already admitted the move is more “deployment” than “exercise” and analysts say as many as 9,000 American troops are now in Israel helping that country prepare to bring Iran’s nuclear weapons program to a violent end.
This escalation in tension comes after repeated successful attempts by Western black ops to stymie Iran’s nuclear progress, first with the Stuxnet worm, something of a warning shot. This unprecedented secret cyber attack was followed by a pair of powerful explosions which destroyed important weapons manufacturing infrastructure. While Iran claims these as accidents, many analysts are convinced that a CIA/Mossad connection is a much more rational explanation.
Analyst Davis Swanson warns that not only is an Israel-Iran or Israel-US-Iran conflict imminent, but it threatens to quickly develop into a global conflict, saying recently:
All this news makes a war seems likely, to some even certain. It remains to be seen how such a conflict would begin, though many assume an Israel-led strike on Iranian nuclear targets. But as of now there is no way of knowing for sure if, 5 years from now, we’ll be writing about U.S. oil companies making bank in Iran, like we are today about Iraq. After all, we already have a contingency plan in place should oil supplies be disrupted by a conflict in the near future.