Mutating Strains of Swine Flu Will Go Pandemic

This is the flu season of our discontent. Not because it’s been particularly bad — it’s hasn’t even kicked in quite yet. The concern is warranted because this marks a big year for mutating influenza strains, which once again threaten our lead in the medicinal arms race. Evidence is mounting that the virus is spreading via human-to-human contact, having been recently detected in 12 new cases in disparate U.S. locations.

The CDC often is accused of unnecessarily scaring the crap out of people, but folks should keep in mind that pandemics start with patient zero and it only takes a few cases to get really bad. The recent film portrays this deadly progression quite accurately, and is a cautionary tale for our times.

Of course, it’s not just human-to-human contagiousness that’s troubling. New drug-resistant strains of influenza are being discovered all the time. If such a strain were to reach a tipping point in the world’s population, it would be very difficult to stop before millions were infected.

Of course, there are biosecurity issues too, like the recent bird flu studies in which scientists want to publish the recipe for a mutant strain of bird flu that spread from human to human.

Dr. Charles Chiu is head of the viral diagnostics laboratory at University of California, San Francisco, or in other words, a dude who knows what he’s talking about. He and his colleagues are quick to point out a new influenza pandemic is not a question of if but when:

“The 2009 pandemic sort of woke everyone up… It’s pretty clear that we will see another global pandemic. Whether that will be this year or next year or 10 or 20 years from now doesn’t matter. It’s going to happen.”